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Stratara's model flagged Buffalo CHEAP at approximately +110 bps vs. fair value. Observed multifamily cap rates have traded in the 6.8–7.2% range, while the Stratara fair-value model placed fair value near 6.0–6.2%. Driver: population stabilization after decades of outflow (Census ACS), improving labor market breadth (BLS QCEW), and below-average FEMA Expected Annual Loss relative to comparable Rust Belt markets.

Stratara's model flagged Boise RICH at approximately −90 bps vs. fair value. Observed cap rates compressed sharply during 2021–2023 migration inflows. Market transactions implied cap rates near 5.1–5.4%, while the Stratara fair-value model placed fair value closer to 6.0–6.2%. Driver: rent growth has decelerated from peak; population growth has slowed from pandemic-era highs; FEMA NRI Expected Annual Loss for Ada County has increased with each annual revision.

Stratara's model flagged Birmingham CHEAP at approximately +120 bps vs. fair value. Cap rates have averaged near the mid-to-high 7% range since 2019, while Stratara's fair-value model placed fair value near 6.0–6.3% given improving employment breadth (BLS QCEW shows healthcare and logistics sector growth), modest rent growth consistent with Census ACS median gross rent trends, and a FEMA NRI climate load that is partially offset by the market's low replacement-cost exposure.

Stratara's model flagged Cleveland CHEAP at approximately +90 bps vs. fair value. Observed multifamily cap rates have traded in the 7.5–8.5% range while Stratara's fair-value model placed fair value near 6.5–7.0%. Driver: BLS QCEW data shows sustained employment growth anchored by major healthcare institutions, offsetting long-run manufacturing contraction. Census ACS median gross rent growth has accelerated since 2021. FEMA NRI Expected Annual Loss for Cuyahoga County is modest relative to coastal peers — low wildfire, hurricane, and storm-surge exposure keeps the climate discount narrow.

Stratara's model flagged Austin RICH at approximately −100 bps vs. fair value. Multifamily cap rates compressed to a 4.5–5.0% range during the 2021–2023 migration surge, while Stratara's fair-value model placed current fair value near 5.8–6.2%. Permit data (Census Building Permits Survey) placed Austin in the top three nationally for multifamily starts per capita through 2023–2024, generating a supply pipeline that coincides with decelerating net domestic migration per Census Bureau annual estimates. FEMA NRI shows increasing wildfire and drought Expected Annual Loss in Travis County, adding a risk-discount pressure not yet reflected in observed transaction pricing.

Stratara's model flagged Tampa RICH at approximately −95 bps vs. fair value. Observed multifamily cap rates remained compressed near 5.0–5.5% despite the post-Hurricane Ian (2022) reset in Florida insurance markets. FEMA NRI Expected Annual Loss for Hillsborough and Pinellas counties ranks among the highest in the continental U.S. for combined hurricane, storm-surge, and coastal flooding risk. NAIC data shows Florida FAIR Plan participation has risen sharply as private carriers reduced exposure, contributing to meaningfully higher insurance load per square foot. Stratara's fair-value model placed fair value near 6.0–6.5% after incorporating the insurance-cost shift, supply completions peaking in 2023–2024, and Census ACS rent growth deceleration.